Daily Florida hurricane-season check for August 23, 2026: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three Atlantic systems, including the first orange (40–60%) seven-day formation area of the season in the eastern tropical Atlantic. The other two disturbances, near Portugal and southeast of Bermuda, remain low chance. Formation chances describe development, not destination; this outlook does not establish a forecast track toward Florida, and conditions can change.
Quick Read
- Official text issue time: 2:00 AM EDT Sunday, August 23, 2026.
- Product: ABNT20 KNHC 230536 / TWOAT.
- Area covered: The North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America.
- Areas being monitored: Northeastern Atlantic, Central Subtropical Atlantic (designated AL95), and Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
- Northeastern Atlantic: Formation chance through 48 hours—low, 10 percent. Formation chance through 7 days—low, 10 percent.
- Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Formation chance through 48 hours—low, 20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days—low, 30 percent.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Formation chance through 48 hours—low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days—medium, 50 percent.
- Active tropical cyclones: None listed in this outlook. (AL95 is a designated area of disturbed weather, not yet a tropical cyclone.)
- Florida/Treasure Coast: The outlook does not establish a Florida track or local landfall threat.
What NHC Is Monitoring
Northeastern Atlantic
NHC says a gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low—10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low—10 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95)
NHC says a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward or northwestward today and then accelerates northward early this week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low—20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low—30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic
NHC says a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low—near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium—50 percent.
Important: These percentages are formation probabilities, not probabilities of reaching Florida. NHC does not provide a Florida track or landfall forecast for any of these areas in this outlook. The 50 percent eastern-Atlantic chance describes the chance a tropical depression forms in the next seven days while the system is still in the deep tropics — it does not forecast where, if anywhere, a future storm would go.
Why Today Is Different From Yesterday
Compared with the August 22 outlook, three changes stand out:
- The eastern tropical Atlantic disturbance has been upgraded from low, 30 percent to medium, 50 percent for the seven-day window, putting it in the orange band on the official graphic.
- The central subtropical Atlantic area has been given an internal NHC identifier — AL95 — even though it remains a low-chance disturbance, not a tropical cyclone.
- The northeastern Atlantic system has dropped from 20 percent to 10 percent for both windows and is now expected to lose its chance for development tonight.
What This Means for the Treasure Coast
For Port Saint Lucie, Jensen Beach, Fort Pierce, and Vero Beach, today’s outlook is a reason to stay aware, double-check your supplies, and watch the next few issuances — not a reason to assume a Florida storm is coming. The system near Portugal is heading toward the Iberian Peninsula, not across the Atlantic. The AL95 disturbance is well southeast of Bermuda and is forecast to accelerate northward early this week, away from the U.S. mainland. The eastern tropical Atlantic wave has not yet moved off Africa and is many days and several thousand miles from any potential influence on Florida — if it ever gets that far.
Conditions and probabilities can change between outlooks. Use NHC products for tropical development, and follow local emergency-management instructions if watches, warnings, or evacuation orders are issued.
Practical Hurricane-Season Tech Check
- Charge power banks and test the cables used by every household phone.
- Confirm important documents and irreplaceable photos have a backup that is not stored only on one computer.
- Save account-recovery details and critical contacts somewhere available during an internet outage.
- Enable emergency alerts on each phone and test a battery-powered weather radio.
- Review family, pet, medication, and evacuation plans before a storm threatens.
- Small businesses should test cloud backups, UPS batteries, remote-access procedures, and a simple staff communication plan.
Official Sources and Preparedness Links
- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook text product
- NHC Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
- NHC hurricane preparedness guidance
- Florida Division of Emergency Management: Plan and Prepare
Reporting cutoff: 7:03 AM EDT (11:03 UTC) on August 23, 2026. This report reflects the NOAA/NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2:00 AM EDT and the official seven-day graphic valid at 1:37 AM EDT. Conditions can change; recheck the linked NHC products for the newest information.